Like many business concepts, the idea of Probabull emerged from failure.

Our story begins when a group of highly successful “Smart Money” (Private Equity) investors/executives decided to use personal funds to actively trade stocks in the public market.  Being experts on multiple markets and fundamental analysis, this seemed like a straightforward idea that would surely work.  After outperforming the market by 7% in the first quarter of trading, everything was going to plan. 

The second quarter performance was a disaster.  Not only did the fund lose all profits, but it went into loss and trailed the S&P 500 performance by 16%.  For these “Smart Money” investors, underperformance to this magnitude was unacceptable.  They withdrew their funds from the market and put a group of analysts on the project to explain why it failed so miserably.

Here is a summary of their findings:  There was nothing drastically wrong with the fundamental or market analysis.  The error was explained as an incorrect thesis that markets are efficient in the short run.  The analysis concluded that short term pricing is only determined by the balance of supply and demand for the asset(s) in question and a series of technical analysis and indicators can help predict this balance.

When asked what analysis gave the best results, the analysts provided multiple answers.  The investors sent them away to study businesses with subscriptions models for specific technical analysis.  The results were clear.  No single metric significantly outperformed any other, but when multiple analysis/indicators complimented each other there was higher probability the asset(s) movement could be predicted.

The investors concluded that there is nothing special about these findings.  Everything is in the public domain and the only barrier to individuals obtaining the information is the time to conduct analysis or the funds to pay businesses ~$100-$1000 for monthly access their analysis.  

Probabull was created to provide affordable access to basic technical analyses for high probability trade set ups.